OHA’s latest modeling report shows need to stay the course

OHA updated its bi-weekly modeling report earlier this week, showing various trajectories for COVID-19. The modeling presents three scenarios:

• If the current transmission rate continues, new daily infections would rise steadily over the next four weeks to around 1,600 infections a day by Aug. 13, with 27 hospitalizations.
• If transmission decreased by 10 percentage points from current rates, the estimated number of new infections would decrease over time to 600 infections a day by Aug. 13 with 17 hospitalizations.
• Finally, a pessimistic scenario, in which transmission increases by 10 percentage points from the current rates, shows 2,300 new daily infections by Aug. 13 with 46 hospitalizations.

OHA State Health Officer Dr. Dean Sidelinger spoke about the projections during OHA’s media availability today. Here’s what he had to say:

These projections show that we’re at a real turning point: We can start to see infections drop again if we reduce transmission through some simple steps:

• Stay six feet apart.
• Avoid larger gatherings.
• Wear a mask.

Alternatively, we can see a scenario where things get worse: Like prior models showed, cases would keep surging and we would rapidly run out of capacity to treat people who become seriously ill.

We have a choice based on these projections: Do we want to work together to get COVID-19 under control? Or do we want to keep watching numbers rise and see our state move toward uncontrolled spread?

For the health of Oregonians, the choice is easy. Let’s work together to put the virus on a path to fade out. Don’t help it gain strength and claim the lives and livelihoods of more Oregonians.

How to stay safe if you must travel

We know summertime is usually vacation season. Although long-distance recreational travel is not recommended at this time, we want to help you stay safe if you do have to hit the road. Good planning and sanitizing can help protect you and others from COVID-19.

Before you go

• Pack alcohol‐based hand sanitizer (containing 60-95% alcohol) and cleaning supplies.
• Bring a face covering to wear in public places (and pack a couple of extras).
• Prepare food and water for your trip to help limit having to go into stores along the way.
• When booking a room online, make sure you know what their COVID safety precautions are or call and ask.

Along the way

• Make sure to wear your face covering when stopping for gas, food or bathroom breaks.
• Maintain physical distancing when making stops.
• Wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after you have been in a public place, after touching surfaces frequently touched by others, after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing, and before touching your face or eating. If soap and water aren’t available, use hand sanitizer.

When you get there

• Stay at least 6 feet apart from other people.
• Avoid crowded places.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands.
• If you’re staying in a hotel, consider limiting or opting out of daily housekeeping service to reduce the number of people entering your room.

A few tips for flying

• Try to limit contact with frequently touched surfaces like kiosks, touchscreens and turnstiles, handrails, restroom surfaces and elevator buttons.
• Try to limit your exposure to others in the airport.
• Wear your mask in the airport and during the flight.
• Continue to practice good hand hygiene.